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Growth Issues Swing Gubernatorial Race: Analysis & Commentary
November 9, 2005

IIn the traffic clogged suburbs of Northern Virginia, Tim Kaine hit a chord with voters that allowed him some historic victories.

All 3 gubernatorial candidates talked about transportation issues, but Tim Kaine hit a chord with voters when he linked transportation solutions to land use and growth issues. Since 1999, polls have show that Virginians believe better managing growth is the best way to deal with traffic problems. This year voters had the choice of a gubernatorial candidate who focused on: raising more money for transportation, spending more general fund money on transportation or better managing growth to reduce traffic, and they chose the third.

Tim Kaine won in places he wasn’t expected to win, like the republican dominated, outer suburbs of Prince William and Loudoun. He tapped into strong passions about how to deal with the impacts of poorly planned development and the traffic, school crowding and other issues it creates. A clear commitment to link growth and transportation issues proved to be enough for voters to leave their traditional party affiliation – something all future candidates, regardless of party, should note.

At the same time, voters in suburban Fairfax County elected by a large margin both Kaine and a state delegate who supported appropriate new development at a Metro station. His opponent had been criticizing the project, MetroWest, and using Metro stations as a primary location for future growth.

The election showed yet again that Virginia voters are savvy about the details of growth issues and understand that where and how we grow is critical to not only traffic issues, but all aspects of our daily life and economy.

Notes on results in suburban Northern Virginia

Fairfax: Kaine won by a 22% margin, much larger than Byrne, who is from Fairfax, Deeds, or Warner, a Northern Virginian, four years ago (Warner won with 10% margin in 2001)

Loudoun: Kaine won Loudoun as did McDonnell, the republican candidate for Attorney General – but Kaine won by a much larger margin. (5.5% vs. 1.5%) Warner lost Loudoun by 6.5% four years ago.

Prince William: Voters elected Kaine, Bolling and McDonnell for their statewide ticket. Kaine was the only Democrat to win out of 8 races on the ballot. Warner lost Prince William by 4.5% in 2001.

In his speech on Tuesday night, Kaine highlighted four items in his "platform for the future." The second was: "Tackle our transportation problems through restoring trust in the system and preventing runaway development from clogging up our roads and ruining our beautiful landscapes."

Detailed election results by county, district and precinct are available from the State Board of Elections.