RELEASE: VDOT briefs flawed I-495 Southside Study to Fairfax County Board of Supervisors

Posted on by Ayesha Amsa

Agency continues to ignore alternatives to widening and HOT lanes 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
October 30, 2024

CONTACT
Stewart Schwartz, CSG
stewart@smartergrowth.net, 703-599-6437

Yesterday, the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) briefed the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors on its proposed project to expand I-495 with private toll lanes between Springfield and the Woodrow Wilson Bridge. At the meeting, Supervisors raised questions about the potential for the additional lanes to lead to increased traffic on connecting arterial roads. Maryland officials (not part of the briefing) have also expressed concerns that the project would simply create a new bottleneck in Prince George’s County, where the new lanes would end. 

VDOT says it is continuing its traffic analysis. 

“That the additional capacity of the HOT lanes would generate more traffic trying to travel to and from the lanes via connecting roads like Route 1, Telegraph, and Van Dorn, wouldn’t be surprising. Decades of academic studies show that bigger highways generate more traffic over time, a proven phenomenon called induced demand. Yet, VDOT refuses to acknowledge the problems of endless highway widening,” said Bill Pugh, Senior Policy Fellow for the Coalition for Smarter Growth (CSG).  

“VDOT’s presentation also incorporates the equivalent of a Halloween scare tactic,” said Stewart Schwartz, CSG Executive Director. VDOT’s projection is that if they don’t widen the highway then drivers in the year 2050 would spend on average two to two-and-half hours to go 15 miles from Fairfax to Prince George’s in the PM peak. “Today’s back-ups are bad but that extreme future scenario simply would not happen and demonstrates the inherent flaws of traffic models. As the road became more congested, people would not just sit in traffic. They would change the time of their commute and not run errands during that time period, others would shift to transit including Amtrak for the I-95 corridor, and jobs and housing would rebalance. For example, more jobs in Prince George’s at their Metro stations would allow for their residents to avoid such a serious level of traffic.” (See Norm Marshall, Smart Mobility, Inc, “Forecasting the Impossible…” below) 

Schwartz continued, “Both Maryland and Virginia residents deserve alternatives to driving long distances. Our region is equipped with tools for near-term creative solutions like beefed-up incentive programs and piloting bus lanes, and should remain committed to its approved goals for expanding transit, and focusing jobs and housing near high-capacity transit.”

“In addition to ignoring induced demand and relying on flawed traffic models, VDOT’s study is compromised at the outset by its ‘conclusions-first’ approach,” said Pugh. “The agency’s stated project purpose is ‘to extend and provide continuity of the Express Lanes system’ and their evaluation criteria reinforce this predetermined conclusion. They have also excluded viable alternatives from study.”

Officials with the City of Alexandria, WMATA, Prince George’s, and local members of the Virginia General Assembly have asked VDOT to evaluate other transit, dedicated bus lanes, HOV and travel demand management solutions. Stakeholders like CSG have also asked for a more effective long-lasting alternative that combines Metrorail on the already reserved bridge space with expanded transit-oriented development in adjoining jurisdictions. 

“The underlying cause of PM peak backups on the Beltway are Maryland residents trying to get home. The most effective long-term solution is more jobs and housing at transit stations in Prince George’s and at future Bus Rapid Transit Stations in Fairfax along Richmond Highway,” said Pugh.

It’s notable that in VDOT’s analysis to date, adding 2 express lanes in each direction showed little difference compared to adding just 1 express Lane. This suggests that small changes such as using the available right-of-way for a dedicated bus lane and possibly HOV is well worth studying, combined with innovative and expanded commuter incentive programs for taking transit or carpooling. These alternatives (HOTTER Lanes or Flex-HOT Lanes) have been separately modeled by outside experts and show potential for improving travel times and providing more options, but without the problems of widening highways for adjacent communities, induced traffic over time, and climate change. Using just one lane would ensure that the Metrorail right-of-way on the Woodrow Wilson Bridge stays reserved for Metrorail.

“By choosing only to evaluate HOT lanes and widening alternatives, VDOT is presenting a false choice to the public and elected decisionmakers: either expand 495 Southside with private tolled express lanes, or do nothing. But other solutions are available. We should not be making multi-billion dollar decisions on projects with significant community and environmental impact without fairly and objectively modeling traffic and evaluating alternatives,” concluded Schwartz.

More information: 

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The Coalition for Smarter Growth is the leading organization in the Washington DC region dedicated to making the case for smart growth. Our mission is to advocate for walkable, bikeable, inclusive, and transit-oriented communities as the most sustainable and equitable way for the Washington, DC region to grow and provide opportunities for all.